1974-76 = 2009-1?

<body topmargin=0 leftmargin=0 marginheight=0 marginwidth=0> <table cellpadding=0 cellspacing=0 border=0><tr> <td valign="top" height=35 BGCOLOR="#000099" TEXT="#F7F7FF"> <div> <B>Rallies 1974-76 & 2009-1?</B></div> <div> <A HREF="id63.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="Share and housing bust">Share and housing bust</A>   |   <A HREF="id66.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="Crash Index">Crash Index</A>   |   <A HREF="id67.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="What to expect?">What to expect?</A>   |   <A HREF="id68.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="Biblical Financial Cycles">Biblical Financial Cycles</A>   |   <A HREF="id69.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="Conclusion">Conclusion</A>   |   <A HREF="id72.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="192931 and 200002">1929-31 and 2000-02</A>   |   <A HREF="id77.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="Barack Obama, Jimmy Carter and JFK">Barack Obama, Jimmy Carter and JFK</A>   |   <A HREF="id29.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="Parallels: 1920s and 1990s">Parallels: 1920s and 1990s</A>   |   <B>1974-76 = 2009-1?</B></div> <div> </div> </td> </tr><tr> <td valign="top" height=445 BGCOLOR="#FFFFFF" TEXT="#080000"> <bR> <div> "[The] blue chip indexes [are] at 12-year lows... The only other 2 times that saw the S&P or DJIA at 12-year lows over the past century were 1932 and 1974. In hindsight, both instances turned out to be the "buying opportunity of a lifetime"" (James Stack, <I>Investech Financial Update</I>, investech.com, March 6, 2009).</div> <bR> <bR> <DIV ALIGN="LEFT"></DIV> <div> <IMG SRC="10bc4770.png" border=0 width="708" height="375" ALT="Bitmap Image" ALIGN="BOTTOM" HSPACE="0" VSPACE="0"></div> <bR> <div> (Chart from the chart-building site economagic.com).</div> <bR> <div> <B>Note: </B>In an inflation-adjusted Dow Jones, based on yearly prices, the 1982 low was below the 1974 low (David Chapman, <I>A Depression or Not A Depression</I>, 321gold.com, November 24, 2008). Chart below, from CyclePro Analysis, was in the above article).</div> <bR> <DIV ALIGN="LEFT"></DIV> <div> <IMG SRC="11ca2f30.png" border=0 width="674" height="499" ALT="Bitmap Image" ALIGN="BOTTOM" HSPACE="0" VSPACE="0"></div> <bR> <div> The 1974-76 Dow Jones Industrial Average rally of 75.7%, that began in the recession of 73-75, a 'type' for a future rally, beginning in a recession?</div> <bR> <div> The Dow valuation high of 1966 = 2000;</div> <bR> <div> or alternatively</div> <bR> <div> The Dow and 'glamour' stock high of 1968 = The Dow and 'dotcom' stock high of 2000 - Presidential election years.</div> <bR> <div> Valuation highs in Democratic administration second-terms in 1966 and 2000.</div> <bR> <div> Mild recessions in Republican administration first terms in 1969/70 and 2001.</div> <bR> <div> Nominal Dow highs in Republican administrations in 1973 and 2007.</div> <bR> <div> The 1966 (1968) decline of 36% to May 1970 = The 2000 decline of 38% to October 2002.</div> <bR> <div> The Dow declined 45.08% from 1973 to 1974;</div> <bR> <div> so far (March 5, 2009), the Dow has declined 53.4% from the 2007 high.</div> <bR> <div> (The bear market decline of 2007-2009 is greater than all others except 1930-32).</div> <bR> <div> The bear market low of 1974, below the 1970 low = The bear market low of 2009, below the 2002 low.</div> <bR> <div> The bear market rally high of 1976 lower than the nominal high of 1973 = the bear market rally high of 201?, lower than the nominal high of 2007?</div> <bR> <div> or alternatively</div> <bR> <div> the bear market high of 201? higher than 2007?</div> <bR> <div> Bear market 1966 - 1982 (16 years) = Bear market 2000 - 2016?</div> <bR> <div> Below are two graphs that will be employed in a future article:</div> <bR> <DIV ALIGN="LEFT"></DIV> <div> <IMG SRC="1047f190.gif" border=0 width="639" height="281" ALIGN="BOTTOM" HSPACE="0" VSPACE="0"></div> <bR> <div> Chart from Peter Eliades, "Stockmarket Cycles" traders-talk.com, September 5, 2006; Chart and data from Robert Shiller, <I>Irrational Exuberance</I>, Second Ed., (Princeton: PUP, 2005).</div> <bR> <div> <IMG SRC="10f107d0.png" border=0 width="528" height="381" ALT="Bitmap Image" ALIGN="BOTTOM" HSPACE="0" VSPACE="0"></div> <bR> <div> (Chart from Adam Hamilton, <I>Stock Bull Being Born?</I> zealllc.com, November 7, 2008).</div> <bR> <div> <A HREF="id79_m.htm" TITLE="197476 20091?">Top of Page</A>            <A HREF="id77.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="Barack Obama, Jimmy Carter and JFK">Previous Page</A>            <A HREF="index.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="Future Watch">Home Page</A></div> <bR> </td> </tr></table></body>