1973-1981 and 2007-201?

<body topmargin=0 leftmargin=0 marginheight=0 marginwidth=0> <table cellpadding=0 cellspacing=0 border=0><tr> <td valign="top" height=35 BGCOLOR="#000099" TEXT="#F7F7FF"> <div> <B>1973-1981 and 2007-201?</B></div> <div> <A HREF="id63.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="Share and housing bust">Share and housing bust</A>   |   <A HREF="id66.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="Crash Index">Crash Index</A>   |   <A HREF="id67.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="What to expect?">What to expect?</A>   |   <A HREF="id68.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="Biblical Financial Cycles">Biblical Financial Cycles</A>   |   <A HREF="id69.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="Conclusion">Conclusion</A>   |   <A HREF="id72.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="192931 and 200002">1929-31 and 2000-02</A>   |   <A HREF="id77.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="Barack Obama and Jimmy Carter">Barack Obama and Jimmy Carter</A>   |   <A HREF="id29.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="Parallels: 1920s and 1990s">Parallels: 1920s and 1990s</A>   |   <B>1973-1981 and 2007-201?</B>   |   <A HREF="id87.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="1930s,1970s and Today">1930s,1970s and Today</A></div> <div> </div> </td> </tr><tr> <td valign="top" height=445 BGCOLOR="#FFFFFF" TEXT="#080000"> <bR> <div> "<FONT SIZE="2" COLOR="#0000FF" FACE="Verdana" ><B>[The] blue chip indexes [are] at 12-year lows</B></FONT>... The only other 2 times that saw the S&P or DJIA at 12-year lows over the past century were 1932 and 1974. In hindsight, both instances turned out to be the "buying opportunity of a lifetime"" (James Stack, <I>Investech Financial Update</I>, investech.com, <FONT SIZE="2" COLOR="#0000FF" FACE="Verdana" ><B>March 6, 2009</B></FONT>).</div> <bR> <DIV ALIGN="LEFT"></DIV> <div> <IMG SRC="1fcc2780.png" border=0 width="706" height="376" ALT="Bitmap Image" ALIGN="BOTTOM" HSPACE="0" VSPACE="0"></div> <bR> <div> (Chart from the chart-building site economagic.com).</div> <bR> <div> In the chart above, between the beamarket low of 1974 and the market top of 1981, there were, for all intents and purposes, two cyclical bull markets and one cyclical bear market, with one recession (the mild Carter recession of 1980). In the period from the bear market low of 2009 there has only been one cyclical bull, as of August 21, 2011).</div> <bR> <div> While not necessary, a bear market decline and a recession would rhyme with 1974-81, before the last major rally of 2009-2013.</div> <bR> <div> <B>Some rhymes</B></div> <bR> <div> The Dow valuation high of 1966 = 2000;</div> <bR> <div> or alternatively</div> <bR> <div> The Dow and 'glamour' stock high of 1968 = The Dow and 'dotcom' stock high of 2000 - Presidential election years.</div> <bR> <div> Valuation highs in Democratic administration second-terms in 1966 and 2000.</div> <bR> <div> The 1966 (1968) decline of 36% to May 1970 = The 2000 decline of 38% to October 2002.</div> <bR> <div> Mild recessions in Republican administration first terms in 1969/70 and 2001.</div> <bR> <div> Nominal Dow highs in Republican administrations in 1973 and 2007.</div> <bR> <div> Valuation high 1966 to nominal high 1973 - just short of seven years.</div> <bR> <div> Valuation hign 2000 to nominal high 2007 - just over seven years and eight months.</div> <bR> <div> The Dow declined 45.08% from 1973 to 1974;</div> <bR> <div> The Dow declined 53.7% from the 2007 to 2009.</div> <bR> <div> (The bear market percentage decline of 2007-2009 is greater than all others except 1930-32).</div> <bR> <div> The bear market low of 1974, below the 1970 low = The bear market low of 2009, below the 2002 low.</div> <bR> <div> Dow up 75.69% in the bear market rally 1974-76.</div> <bR> <div> Dow up 95.66% in the bearmarket rally of 2009-11 (so far).</div> <bR> <div> The bear market rally high of 1976 lower than the nominal high of 1973 = the bear market rally high of 2011, lower than the nominal high of 2007 (so far).</div> <bR> <div> [In comparing October 2007 - January 2013 - the time from the Dow Jones nominal high to the end of the first [and only?] term of the Obama Administration, a period of 5 years and three months - with January 1973 to January 1981 - the time from the Dow Jones nominal high to the end of the first and only one term of Jimmy Carter, a period of 8 years, there is a time difference of two years and nine months].</div> <bR> <div> Bear market 1966 - 1982 (16 years) = Bear market 2000 - 2016?</div> <bR> <div> The next severe recession, to rhyme with 1981-82, will most likely be severer that the Hoover recession of the Great Depression of 1929-1933.</div> <bR> <div> <B>Note: </B>In an inflation-adjusted Dow Jones, based on yearly prices, the 1982 low was below the 1974 low (David Chapman, <I>A Depression or Not A Depression</I>, 321gold.com, November 24, 2008). Chart below, from CyclePro Analysis, was in the above article).</div> <bR> <DIV ALIGN="LEFT"></DIV> <div> <IMG SRC="11ca2f30.png" border=0 width="674" height="499" ALT="Bitmap Image" ALIGN="BOTTOM" HSPACE="0" VSPACE="0"></div> <bR> <div> Below are two graphs that will be employed in a future article:</div> <bR> <DIV ALIGN="LEFT"></DIV> <div> <IMG SRC="1047f190.gif" border=0 width="639" height="281" ALIGN="BOTTOM" HSPACE="0" VSPACE="0"></div> <bR> <div> Chart from Peter Eliades, "Stockmarket Cycles" traders-talk.com, September 5, 2006; Chart and data from Robert Shiller, <I>Irrational Exuberance</I>, Second Ed., (Princeton: PUP, 2005).</div> <bR> <div> <IMG SRC="10f107d0.png" border=0 width="528" height="381" ALT="Bitmap Image" ALIGN="BOTTOM" HSPACE="0" VSPACE="0"></div> <bR> <div> (Chart from Adam Hamilton, <I>Stock Bull Being Born?</I> zealllc.com, November 7, 2008).</div> <bR> <div> <A HREF="id79_m.htm" TITLE="19731981 and 2007201?">Top of Page</A>            <A HREF="id77.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="Barack Obama and Jimmy Carter">Previous Page</A>            <A HREF="index.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="Future Watch">Home Page</A></div> <bR> </td> </tr></table></body>