THE BIG NEWS STORY OF THE 21st CENTURY
THE DECLINE OF AMERICA AND THE RISE OF EUROPE
"...the transition between British and American predominance from 1914 to 1945 shook the world no less than a violent earthquake. The political, monetary, and military foundations upon which markets operated were severly tested. In more than one instance, they gave way, and as they did, prosperity - like a weakened building - tumbled into the chasm. The result was disorder: a world unpoliced, in which property rights and free trade were abridged or abolished in many places, and millions perished in brutal wars" (James Dale Davidson and William Rees-Mogg, The Great Reckoning, Revised Edition, (London:Sidgwick & Jackson, 1993), p.138).
"As Jesus was sitting on the Mount of Olives, the disciples came to him privately. "Tell us," they said... "what will be the sign of your coming and of the end of the age?" Jesus answered: "Watch out that no one deceives you. For many will come in my name, claiming, 'I am the Christ, ' and will deceive many. You will hear of wars and rumors of wars, but see to it that you are not alarmed. Such things must happen, but the end is still to come. Nation will rise against nation, and kingdom against kingdom. There will be famines and earthquakes in various places. All these are the beginning of birth pains" (Matthew 24:3-12).
"The Beginning of birth pains" maybe the transition period from American to European world hegemony.
The transition from American to European world hegemony will involve events that have their precedents in the past, or, may be projected from them. In the booklet "Britain and America in History and the Future" there is an emphasis on turning point financial panics and their aftermaths. The ensuing recesssions and/or depressions involve economic, political and natural upheavals:
"The message from history is that cooperation declines along with economies. As world growth prospects diminish, ethnic solidarity and nationalism increase. Horizons narrow. Groups tend to hoard political advantages and seek regulations that reserve for themselves as much as possible of the smaller pie" (Davidson and Rees-Mogg, p.139).
Paul Johnson in reviewing the boom and bust of the 1830s pointed out that "nature intervened, as it usually does when men construct houses of straw, or paper" (A History of the American People, (London: Weidenfeld & Nicolson, 1997), p.259).
"In bull markets, people focus on progress and production; in bear markets, they focus on limits and conservation...
"Bull markets result in increased harmony in every aspect of society, including the moral, religious, racial, national, regional, social, financial, political and otherwise. Bear markets bring polarization. With that realization, you can predict increasing cooperation in all those areas in bull markets, and increasing conflict in bear markets...
"The bear market will bring back nationalism, racial exclusion, and perhaps even religious conflict. Thinking technically about events, that is, observing what they reveal about social psychology, prepares you for those changes, whereas trying to predict the future from the events themselves leads you to the opposite, and wrong, conclusion. It cannot be stressed enough, because life-or-death decisions can depend upon your assessment..." (Bob Prechter, Why Fashion Trumps Financial Media, elliottwave.com, September 28, 2006).
The times from the stockmarket crash of 1873 to 1914 and from the sharemarket crash of 1929 to 1939 provide the major historical background for viewing global society from the Nasdaq crash of 2000/Property bust of 2007 to the future WW3.
Below are various "pages" that contain news and current events that pertain to various trends or projections from the past that may have a bearing on the future.
What to watch for?
Stockmarket crashes - Dow Jones at 1500?; ASX 200 at 700?
Oil at $10-$20 barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange
Bursting of first global property boom
Collapse of world financial system - Bretton Woods Mk2
End of Globalization Mk2
Protectionism
Trade War - Rival trade systems
Backlash against international migration
Deflation - Asset and consumer price
Mass Unemployment - 20%-30% +
Higher taxes
Slashed Government services
Pension and superannuation funds devastated
Social unrest and movements
Revolutions a la 1930s
Anarchy and Civil war in China leading to balkanisation - The Greater Yangtze Delta to rival the Greater Peal River Delta?
Revival of military-Shintoism in Japan
Revival of traditional Christianity
Balkanisation of America - A secular-religious divide in "white" America
Balkanisation of Britain - End of the experiment beginning in 1707
Europe's Islamic threat Mk 3 - An Iman Mahdi/Gamal Adbel Nasser type figure to galvanise north and east African Islamic world
Emergence of modern-day Holy Roman Empire
American-European rivalry of the early twenty-first century to compare with Anglo-German rivalry of the early twentieth-century
Central and eastern Europe, not China, as the growth story of the twenty-first century before WW3